Reliance Industries’ stock saw a modest rise of nearly 1.14%, reaching ₹1,266.45 per share on January 16, ahead of its Q3 FY25 earnings announcement. The stock has been on a corrective downtrend, falling by 20% over the past six months and 8% in the last year. Despite this, analysts suggest that Reliance shares may be bottoming out, forming a base around ₹1,200–₹1,230 levels, and showing signs of a potential trend reversal, bolstered by a bullish divergence in its Relative Strength Index (RSI).
The upcoming earnings report is expected to show a mixed performance for Reliance. Analysts anticipate robust growth in the telecom sector, particularly for Jio, alongside improved refining margins. However, the oil-to-chemical (O2C) segment may report muted earnings, with only a modest 2% quarter-on-quarter growth expected. Retail growth is also forecasted to be moderate, given ongoing challenges in the sector.
Despite these mixed expectations, analysts highlight a positive outlook, noting improvements in refining margins and ARPU (average revenue per user) for Jio, along with a continued expansion in the retail space. Reliance is projected to see a 6% sequential increase in its EBITDA, driven by these factors, though year-on-year comparisons are expected to remain flat due to the weaker energy segment and subdued retail growth.
In light of this information, the stock’s recent gains could suggest a buying opportunity for investors looking for long-term growth, especially if the trend reversal materializes. However, cautious investors may prefer to wait for clarity post-earnings to assess how the company navigates its challenges, particularly in its retail and O2C segments.
